Referencing historical data for the West Volusia Association of Realtors Sales and Inventory data, the Mid-Florida Regional MLS shows some very telling and disappointing stats for our area. To summarize, showing the 5 year history of home prices for the month of JANUARY:
JANUARY 2005 HOMES SOLD: 205, AVG LIST PRICE: $157,234, AVG SOLD PRICE: $153,162
JANUARY 2006 HOMES SOLD: 200, AVG LIST PRICE: $238,023, AVG SOLD PRICE: $229,799
JANUARY 2007 HOMES SOLD: 161, AVG LIST PRICE: $235,761, AVG SOLD PRICE: $225,669
JANUARY 2008 HOMES SOLD: 70, AVG LIST PRICE: $187,828, AVG SOLD PRICE: $177,833
JANUARY 2009 HOMES SOLD: 101, AVG LIST PRICE: $134,438, AVG SOLD PRICE: $124,456
While the bump in sales in January 09 over January 08 is a welcome improvement, the sales are in direct corelation to the amount of foreclosures that have been sold. As indicated by the continued decline in the Average sold price, pressure continues to put pressure on prices as the inventory of foreclosures continues to grow.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Current real estate market conditions
Some of you have asked our opinion on the current real estate market. So here goes…
For the immediate future we see a continued decline in home prices in most US markets. The market in Canada remains good but is showing signs of weakening. In the areas hardest hit (NV, FL, CA, AZ ) the worst seems to be behind us. Sales are picking up, due in a large part to huge price adjustments. In some markets prices have rolled back to around 1999 levels. With low interest rates, these homes are affordable and often payments are less than rental rates. These markets still have many over-priced homes and bank owned homes, and numerous owners are facing foreclosure. New programs targeted at keeping people in their homes along with buyers snapping up the good deals (steals) on REOs, helps to stabilize these markets.
In areas that were not hit so hard over the past few years (most of the other states), we are seeing a significant drop in sales volume but not so much in the way of price declines. This is most likely due to a lack of buyer confidence. The bleak picture presented in the daily news is taking its toll. Once consumer confidence improves the recovery can begin
For the immediate future we see a continued decline in home prices in most US markets. The market in Canada remains good but is showing signs of weakening. In the areas hardest hit (NV, FL, CA, AZ ) the worst seems to be behind us. Sales are picking up, due in a large part to huge price adjustments. In some markets prices have rolled back to around 1999 levels. With low interest rates, these homes are affordable and often payments are less than rental rates. These markets still have many over-priced homes and bank owned homes, and numerous owners are facing foreclosure. New programs targeted at keeping people in their homes along with buyers snapping up the good deals (steals) on REOs, helps to stabilize these markets.
In areas that were not hit so hard over the past few years (most of the other states), we are seeing a significant drop in sales volume but not so much in the way of price declines. This is most likely due to a lack of buyer confidence. The bleak picture presented in the daily news is taking its toll. Once consumer confidence improves the recovery can begin
Thursday, August 7, 2008
August 08 Update
Housing Market Key Indicator Alert - August 6
By: Hanley Wood
Price of Oil Sinks, as Does Another Home Builder
Dismal housing market conditions in the once booming Florida market have forced multi-family residential developer WCI Communities to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy while also forcing the failure of small local lender First Priority Bank. This was the eighth bank failure in the U.S. this year. Both new and existing home sales continued to decline in June which validate that conditions remain weak in most housing markets across the nation. Although the credit crunch and continued declines in the housing markets have forced another public builder and more regional banks to go under, falling oil prices in the past week took center stage and spurred enthusiasm in the equity markets.
Stocks rallied on Tuesday as declining oil prices and a decision by the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 2% sparked buying on Wall St. News that the most recent storm would not significantly disrupt any production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico sent crude prices for September delivery down to a little more than $119/barrel which is the lowest it has been since early May. Economic data in the past week, however, continued to show weakening conditions in the economy. Continued job losses, rising unemployment, and revisions to GDP actually showing that the economy contracted in the fourth quarter of last year added to concerns that tougher times may still be ahead.
The Economy Non-farm employment fell for the seventh straight month in July as the economy shed 51,000 payrolls. The economy has shed 463,000 so far this year. Currently, non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment shows a figure of 137,236,000, a loss of 0.13% from July 2007. The unemployment rate in July also jumped to a four-year high at 5.7%.
Advance estimates for second quarter gross domestic product jumped higher to 1.9% from the revised final first quarter figure of 0.9%. Although advance estimates show a surprisingly high growth rate for the second quarter due to the effects of the government's economic stimulus package and stronger exports coupled with slowing imports, revisions show that the economy experienced a quarter of contraction at the end of last year. Fourth quarter 2007 GDP figures were revised lower to reflect 0.2% contraction in the economy instead of the 0.6% growth that was previously reported. Growth in the first quarter of 2008 was also revised slightly lower to 0.9% from 1.0%.
Consumer confidence recorded its first monthly increase in seven months in July. The consumer confidence index increased slightly this month from its lowest levels since February 1992. The index increased to 51.9 in July from an upwardly revised 51.0 in June which represents a 0.9 point gain from the previous month.
Housing MarketNew and existing home sales both declined in June. New home sales in June declined for the second straight month after posting its first monthly increase since October 2007 in April. Sales eased 0.6% in June to a seasonally-adjusted 530,000 homes, down from a revised May figure of 533,000. Sales for the previous three months, however, were revised higher by 50,000 units. The number of new homes for sale continued to decline as builders continue to scale back production. New home inventory declined to 425,000 which is the lowest it has been since November 2004. In June, median new home prices rebounded from their lowest levels since December to $230,900.
Annualized sales of total existing homes in June declined after posting its first monthly increase since February last month. Sales declined 2.6% from May levels to 4,860,000 units. Sales of existing homes are down 15.5% from the 5.75 million units in June 2007. Median existing home prices in June increased for the fourth straight month to $215,100 from a revised $207,900 in May. This is the highest median existing home prices have been since August 2007. The number of existing homes for sale increased a slight 0.18% to 4.49 million units. At the current sales pace, there are 11.1 months of existing homes supply on the market. Existing home affordability declined for the fourth straight month due to increases in both mortgage rates and existing home prices in June.
National average mortgage rates declined to 6.52% in the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey released weekly by Freddie Mac on July 31st. Rates had been at their highest levels since August 2007 in the previous week. In the week ending July 25th, the MBA’s seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index declined to 309.5 from 335.6 in the previous week. This is the third straight week that the purchase index has declined and the lowest it has been since February 2003. The latest figure reflects a 7.78 percent decrease from last week and a 25.71 percent drop from the same period last year.
By: Hanley Wood
Price of Oil Sinks, as Does Another Home Builder
Dismal housing market conditions in the once booming Florida market have forced multi-family residential developer WCI Communities to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy while also forcing the failure of small local lender First Priority Bank. This was the eighth bank failure in the U.S. this year. Both new and existing home sales continued to decline in June which validate that conditions remain weak in most housing markets across the nation. Although the credit crunch and continued declines in the housing markets have forced another public builder and more regional banks to go under, falling oil prices in the past week took center stage and spurred enthusiasm in the equity markets.
Stocks rallied on Tuesday as declining oil prices and a decision by the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 2% sparked buying on Wall St. News that the most recent storm would not significantly disrupt any production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico sent crude prices for September delivery down to a little more than $119/barrel which is the lowest it has been since early May. Economic data in the past week, however, continued to show weakening conditions in the economy. Continued job losses, rising unemployment, and revisions to GDP actually showing that the economy contracted in the fourth quarter of last year added to concerns that tougher times may still be ahead.
The Economy Non-farm employment fell for the seventh straight month in July as the economy shed 51,000 payrolls. The economy has shed 463,000 so far this year. Currently, non-seasonally adjusted total non-farm employment shows a figure of 137,236,000, a loss of 0.13% from July 2007. The unemployment rate in July also jumped to a four-year high at 5.7%.
Advance estimates for second quarter gross domestic product jumped higher to 1.9% from the revised final first quarter figure of 0.9%. Although advance estimates show a surprisingly high growth rate for the second quarter due to the effects of the government's economic stimulus package and stronger exports coupled with slowing imports, revisions show that the economy experienced a quarter of contraction at the end of last year. Fourth quarter 2007 GDP figures were revised lower to reflect 0.2% contraction in the economy instead of the 0.6% growth that was previously reported. Growth in the first quarter of 2008 was also revised slightly lower to 0.9% from 1.0%.
Consumer confidence recorded its first monthly increase in seven months in July. The consumer confidence index increased slightly this month from its lowest levels since February 1992. The index increased to 51.9 in July from an upwardly revised 51.0 in June which represents a 0.9 point gain from the previous month.
Housing MarketNew and existing home sales both declined in June. New home sales in June declined for the second straight month after posting its first monthly increase since October 2007 in April. Sales eased 0.6% in June to a seasonally-adjusted 530,000 homes, down from a revised May figure of 533,000. Sales for the previous three months, however, were revised higher by 50,000 units. The number of new homes for sale continued to decline as builders continue to scale back production. New home inventory declined to 425,000 which is the lowest it has been since November 2004. In June, median new home prices rebounded from their lowest levels since December to $230,900.
Annualized sales of total existing homes in June declined after posting its first monthly increase since February last month. Sales declined 2.6% from May levels to 4,860,000 units. Sales of existing homes are down 15.5% from the 5.75 million units in June 2007. Median existing home prices in June increased for the fourth straight month to $215,100 from a revised $207,900 in May. This is the highest median existing home prices have been since August 2007. The number of existing homes for sale increased a slight 0.18% to 4.49 million units. At the current sales pace, there are 11.1 months of existing homes supply on the market. Existing home affordability declined for the fourth straight month due to increases in both mortgage rates and existing home prices in June.
National average mortgage rates declined to 6.52% in the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey released weekly by Freddie Mac on July 31st. Rates had been at their highest levels since August 2007 in the previous week. In the week ending July 25th, the MBA’s seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index declined to 309.5 from 335.6 in the previous week. This is the third straight week that the purchase index has declined and the lowest it has been since February 2003. The latest figure reflects a 7.78 percent decrease from last week and a 25.71 percent drop from the same period last year.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
5 YEAR MOVING SALES REPORT BY MONTH (through June 2008)
There's nothing like the cold reality of facts. The link below will show you the month by month sales of homes in the West Volusia County market for the past 5 years. It is jam packed with data showing the month, year, units sold that month, the average list price, sold price, the percentage difference between the two. The average DOM (Days On the Market), how many homes were for sale that month and how many months of inventory that # of active homes represents.
It's chilling, if you are a seller. Powerful inside information, if you're a buyer.
If you're a buyer and your agent isn't showing this kind of information or doesn't know how to explain it, I wonder why? I know how to interpret this data to YOUR advantage. Get in touch with me now.
http://mfrmls.com/documents/4YrBoardStatHistory_WVol.pdf
It's chilling, if you are a seller. Powerful inside information, if you're a buyer.
If you're a buyer and your agent isn't showing this kind of information or doesn't know how to explain it, I wonder why? I know how to interpret this data to YOUR advantage. Get in touch with me now.
http://mfrmls.com/documents/4YrBoardStatHistory_WVol.pdf
Friday, July 25, 2008
West Volusia Home Sales Stats JUNE 2008
Conditions continue to deteriorate as the summer selling season goes forward. As sales have picked up a bit, it's mostly because investors have moved in to grab REO/Foreclosures that are priced at a bargain. This should be a huge signal to those buyers that have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy. If the investors think it's a deal and are buying, YOU should be buying now too.
Follow the link below to view the latest sales statistics for sales of all types in our local market.
http://mfrmls.com/documents/Sales&Inv_WVol.pdf
Follow the link below to view the latest sales statistics for sales of all types in our local market.
http://mfrmls.com/documents/Sales&Inv_WVol.pdf
Key Indicators Alert - July 23
Housing Market Key Indicator Alert - July 23 By: Hanley Wood
Higher Prices Worrisome
Weak demand conditions and the flustering economy continued to negatively impact data in the housing markets last week. Single-family housing starts fell again in June to their lowest levels in 17 years while total housing starts increased in June due to a jump in multi-family starts. The jump in multi-family activity was driven by new construction code changes made in New York City that went into effect in July. Total permit activity also jumped in June due to the effects of the building code changes in NYC, although single-family permits declined another 3.5% in June. Slower demand and problems in the credit markets also pushed builder confidence to all-time lows in the last NAHB Housing Market Index. In July, the NAHB HMI declined for the third straight month to a record low reading of 16.
Weaker housing and economic data along with inflated consumer prices have done little to dampen the mood on Wall St. in the past week. Financials have rallied as rumors around the collapse of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were dismissed. Better than expected results from financial powerhouses like Citi and Bank of America also helped with the hopes that the worst for the financial sector may be over.
Falling crude prices have also helped push equities higher in recent weeks. Crude-oil prices dropped roughly 11% last week and continued to slide on Tuesday as concerns about Tropical Storm Dolly disrupting production in the Gulf eased. Crude closed trading on Tuesday at just under $128/barrel for August delivery. Although crude prices have dropped to hover at their lowest levels in almost seven weeks, they still remain at a high elevated level. The inflationary effect of higher food and energy prices were evident in the consumer price index last month. Elevated crude and food prices will continue to have an inflationary effect and may force the Fed to raise rates before the end of the year.
The Economy
Leading economic indicators continue to suggest slower economic growth going forward. Leading indicators fell for the second straight month in June, posting a 0.10 decline from a downwardly revised May figure to a reading of 101.70. Only four out of the ten components showed monthly improvement while just three showed gains compared to the prior six-month period.
Total housing starts rebounded 9.1% in June due to a 43.9% jump in multi-family starts while single-family housing starts fell 5.3% in June. Total starts are still down 26.9% from June of last year. Single-family permit issuance decreased slightly again in June, down 3.5% from the level seen last month to a seasonally-adjusted level of just 613,000 permits issued. The number of single-family issuances in June was 40% lower than the level seen in June of 2007 and 56% lower than two years ago. Total permit issuances, however, increased 11.6% in June due to a 44.3% in multi-family (5+ units) permit issuances.
June's consumer inflation data showed a spike in inflationary pressures as higher food and rocketing energy prices sent the CPI higher. The CPI in June increased 1.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis with energy prices surging 6.6% and food prices increasing 0.8% last month. The Core-CPI, which economists watch as a more accurate indicator of inflation because it excludes often volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted basis in June. Headline consumer inflation jumped 5.0% in the past year which is the largest year-over-year gain since May 1991.
Housing MarketNational average mortgage rates declined to 6.26% in the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey released weekly by Freddie Mac on July 17th. Rates have now posted weekly declines in two out of the past three weeks and are at their lowest levels since the beginning of June. In the week ending July 11th, the MBA’s seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index declined to 359.7 from 365.8 in the previous week. The latest figure reflects a 1.67 percent decrease from last week and a 19.44 percent drop from the same period last year.
New and existing home sales moved in opposite directions again in May but it was the existing home market that showed improvement while new home sales faltered. New home sales declined in May after posting its first monthly gain since October 2007 last month. Sales fell 2.5% in May to a seasonally-adjusted 512,000 homes, down from a revised April figure of 525,000. Sales for the previous three months were also revised lower by 9,000 units. At the current sales pace, there are 10.9 months of new homes supply on the market. New home inventory declined to 450,000; the lowest it has been since May 2005. In May, median new home prices fell back to their lowest levels since March to $231,000 after posting a strong rebound in the previous month. Lower prices helped to increase the new home affordability ratio to 48.8% in May.
Annualized sales of total existing homes in May increased for the first time since February, rising 2.0% from April levels to 4,990,000 units. Sales of existing homes are still down 15.9% from the 5.93 million units in May 2007. Median existing home prices in May increased for the third straight month to $208,600 from a revised $201,200 in April. This is the highest median existing home prices have been since November 2007. The number of existing homes for sale declined 1.4% to 4.485 million units in May. At the current sales pace, there are 10.8 months of existing homes supply on the market. Existing home affordability declined for the third straight month due to increases in both mortgage rates and existing home prices in May.
Higher Prices Worrisome
Weak demand conditions and the flustering economy continued to negatively impact data in the housing markets last week. Single-family housing starts fell again in June to their lowest levels in 17 years while total housing starts increased in June due to a jump in multi-family starts. The jump in multi-family activity was driven by new construction code changes made in New York City that went into effect in July. Total permit activity also jumped in June due to the effects of the building code changes in NYC, although single-family permits declined another 3.5% in June. Slower demand and problems in the credit markets also pushed builder confidence to all-time lows in the last NAHB Housing Market Index. In July, the NAHB HMI declined for the third straight month to a record low reading of 16.
Weaker housing and economic data along with inflated consumer prices have done little to dampen the mood on Wall St. in the past week. Financials have rallied as rumors around the collapse of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were dismissed. Better than expected results from financial powerhouses like Citi and Bank of America also helped with the hopes that the worst for the financial sector may be over.
Falling crude prices have also helped push equities higher in recent weeks. Crude-oil prices dropped roughly 11% last week and continued to slide on Tuesday as concerns about Tropical Storm Dolly disrupting production in the Gulf eased. Crude closed trading on Tuesday at just under $128/barrel for August delivery. Although crude prices have dropped to hover at their lowest levels in almost seven weeks, they still remain at a high elevated level. The inflationary effect of higher food and energy prices were evident in the consumer price index last month. Elevated crude and food prices will continue to have an inflationary effect and may force the Fed to raise rates before the end of the year.
The Economy
Leading economic indicators continue to suggest slower economic growth going forward. Leading indicators fell for the second straight month in June, posting a 0.10 decline from a downwardly revised May figure to a reading of 101.70. Only four out of the ten components showed monthly improvement while just three showed gains compared to the prior six-month period.
Total housing starts rebounded 9.1% in June due to a 43.9% jump in multi-family starts while single-family housing starts fell 5.3% in June. Total starts are still down 26.9% from June of last year. Single-family permit issuance decreased slightly again in June, down 3.5% from the level seen last month to a seasonally-adjusted level of just 613,000 permits issued. The number of single-family issuances in June was 40% lower than the level seen in June of 2007 and 56% lower than two years ago. Total permit issuances, however, increased 11.6% in June due to a 44.3% in multi-family (5+ units) permit issuances.
June's consumer inflation data showed a spike in inflationary pressures as higher food and rocketing energy prices sent the CPI higher. The CPI in June increased 1.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis with energy prices surging 6.6% and food prices increasing 0.8% last month. The Core-CPI, which economists watch as a more accurate indicator of inflation because it excludes often volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted basis in June. Headline consumer inflation jumped 5.0% in the past year which is the largest year-over-year gain since May 1991.
Housing MarketNational average mortgage rates declined to 6.26% in the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey released weekly by Freddie Mac on July 17th. Rates have now posted weekly declines in two out of the past three weeks and are at their lowest levels since the beginning of June. In the week ending July 11th, the MBA’s seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index declined to 359.7 from 365.8 in the previous week. The latest figure reflects a 1.67 percent decrease from last week and a 19.44 percent drop from the same period last year.
New and existing home sales moved in opposite directions again in May but it was the existing home market that showed improvement while new home sales faltered. New home sales declined in May after posting its first monthly gain since October 2007 last month. Sales fell 2.5% in May to a seasonally-adjusted 512,000 homes, down from a revised April figure of 525,000. Sales for the previous three months were also revised lower by 9,000 units. At the current sales pace, there are 10.9 months of new homes supply on the market. New home inventory declined to 450,000; the lowest it has been since May 2005. In May, median new home prices fell back to their lowest levels since March to $231,000 after posting a strong rebound in the previous month. Lower prices helped to increase the new home affordability ratio to 48.8% in May.
Annualized sales of total existing homes in May increased for the first time since February, rising 2.0% from April levels to 4,990,000 units. Sales of existing homes are still down 15.9% from the 5.93 million units in May 2007. Median existing home prices in May increased for the third straight month to $208,600 from a revised $201,200 in April. This is the highest median existing home prices have been since November 2007. The number of existing homes for sale declined 1.4% to 4.485 million units in May. At the current sales pace, there are 10.8 months of existing homes supply on the market. Existing home affordability declined for the third straight month due to increases in both mortgage rates and existing home prices in May.
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